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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.08 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model