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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model