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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
@
DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Thursday 2021-11-25 · 16:30 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

LV
33.1%
DAL
66.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Dak Prescott (DAL): +0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DAL defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • LV defense: +0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 7 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LV

Nick Kwiatkoski LB Out Ankle
Keisean Nixon CB Out Ankle
John Simpson G Questionable Ribs

DAL

CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 36
–
DAL 33

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 TD LV (11:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 1-D.Jackson for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 07:44 TD DAL (7:44) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 84-S.McKeon for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – DAL 6
  • Q1 01:36 TD LV (1:36) 28-J.Jacobs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – DAL 6
  • Q2 08:50 FG LV (8:50) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 17 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:29 TD DAL (:29) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LV 17 – DAL 12
  • Q3 07:17 TD LV (7:17) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 8-M.Mariota. 8-M.Mariota right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 23 – DAL 13
  • Q3 07:13 TD DAL 2-D.Carlson kicks 65 yards from LV 35 to DAL 0. 20-T.Pollard for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 24 – DAL 19
  • Q3 03:32 FG LV (3:32) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 27 – DAL 19
  • Q4 12:03 FG DAL (12:03) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. LV 27 – DAL 22
  • Q4 08:21 FG LV (8:21) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on DAL-98-Q.Bohanna, Illegal Formation, declined. LV 30 – DAL 22
  • Q4 02:59 TD DAL (2:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 86-D.Schultz for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 30 – DAL 28
  • Q4 01:57 FG LV (1:57) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 33 – DAL 30
  • Q4 00:24 FG DAL (:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. LV 33 – DAL 33
  • Q5 04:31 FG LV (4:31) 2-D.Carlson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 36 – DAL 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:15) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to LV 8, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 29 for 21 yards (20-T.Pollard; 29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:23) 6-A.Cole punts 68 yards to DAL 5, Center-47-T.Sieg. 1-C.Wilson to DAL 7 for 2 yards (99-C.Ferrell).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:23) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to LV 40, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:50) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to LV 22, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (8:50) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%

    (6:34) 2-G.Zuerlein 59 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 44%

    (3:59) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:00) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to DAL 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds. Penalty on DAL-24-K.Joseph, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LV-33-R.Teamer, Disqualification, offsetting.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 3 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (10:08) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to LV 15, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LV 15.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 84%

    (3:32) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (2:20) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to LV 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 15 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (14:55) 6-A.Cole punts 36 yards to DAL 11, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 1-C.Wilson.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (12:03) 2-G.Zuerlein 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (8:21) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on DAL-98-Q.Bohanna, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:21) 5-B.Anger punts 56 yards to LV 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 25 for 9 yards (57-L.Gifford; 53-F.Bernard).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to DAL 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 1-C.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (55-M.Lee).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 64%

    (1:57) 2-D.Carlson 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 8 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 84%

    (:24) 2-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.