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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 70

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 6-A.Cole punts 53 yards to DAL 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds. Penalty on DAL-24-K.Joseph, Disqualification, offsetting. Penalty on LV-33-R.Teamer, Disqualification, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 70, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model