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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 67

Dallas Cowboys 19 – Las Vegas Raiders 27

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 5-B.Anger punts 58 yards to LV 9, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.56 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP