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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 12

Las Vegas Raiders 27 – Dallas Cowboys 22

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 2-D.Carlson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. Penalty on DAL-98-Q.Bohanna, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.61 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model