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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 30 – Dallas Cowboys 22

What Actually Happened

(3:55) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to DAL 17, Center-47-T.Sieg. 1-C.Wilson pushed ob at DAL 31 for 14 yards (55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 29, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model