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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 2-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 4, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP