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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Thursday 2021-11-25 · 20:20 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

BUF
62.4%
NO
37.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Trevor Siemian (NO) -0.060 vs Josh Allen (BUF) +0.151 EPA/dropback
  • BUF defense: -0.139 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NO offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 25
–
NO 22
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BUF

No players on the report.

NO

Marcus Davenport DE Out Shoulder
Alvin Kamara RB Out Knee
Tanoh Kpassagnon DE Out Ankle
Ryan Ramczyk T Out Knee
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Mark Ingram RB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 31
–
NO 6

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:15 TD BUF (7:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -1, YAC 8 BUF 6 – NO 0
  • Q2 08:50 FG BUF (8:50) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. BUF 10 – NO 0
  • Q3 08:54 TD BUF (8:54) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 4, YAC 1 BUF 16 – NO 0
  • Q3 04:28 TD BUF (4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14 BUF 23 – NO 0
  • Q4 15:00 TD NO (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-T.Siemian pass short right to 81-N.Vannett for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 11, YAC 0 BUF 24 – NO 6
  • Q4 08:25 TD BUF (8:25) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 22-M.Breida for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass -2, YAC 25 BUF 30 – NO 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (13:13) 4-B.Gillikin punts 52 yards to BUF 24, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 35 for 11 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q1 NO 4th & 11 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:31) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to BUF 17, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 27 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 56%

    (12:51) (Shotgun) 34-T.Jones left guard to BUF 46 for -5 yards (97-M.Addison).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (8:50) 2-T.Bass 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:11) 15-T.Siemian right guard to NO 32 for 2 yards (99-H.Phillips).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 10 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (6:17) 4-B.Gillikin punts 43 yards to BUF 25, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 26 for 1 yard (48-J.Gray).

  • Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 36%

    (1:51) (Punt formation) 4-B.Gillikin pass incomplete short left to 84-L.Humphrey.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:21) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BUF 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 38. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:12) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:56) 4-B.Gillikin punts 53 yards to BUF 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 49 for 18 yards (24-D.Washington).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 49%

    (4:45) 3-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NO 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.