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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 17 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(4:28) 71-R.Bates reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 10, YAC 14

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model