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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 41

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Shotgun) 34-T.Jones left guard to BUF 46 for -5 yards (97-M.Addison).

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model