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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 31 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 3-M.Haack punts 36 yards to NO 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 11-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model