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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 24 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 3-M.Haack punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.27 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP