Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 0 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BUF 37, Center-49-Z.Wood. 5-M.Stevenson MUFFS catch, and recovers at BUF 38. 5-M.Stevenson to BUF 47 for 9 yards (53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.99 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model