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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2021-11-21 · 20:20 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

PIT
41.2%
LAC
58.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.125 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): +0.002 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

PIT

Kevin Dotson G Out Ankle
Joe Haden CB Out Foot
Isaiahh Loudermilk DE Out Groin
T.J. Watt LB Out Hip

LAC

Alohi Gilman S Doubtful Quadricep
Linval Joseph DT Doubtful Shoulder
Mark Webb S Doubtful Knee
Justin Jackson RB Questionable Quadricep
Trey Marshall S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 37
–
LAC 41

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 29 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:33 FG PIT (8:33) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – LAC 0
  • Q1 02:13 TD LAC (2:13) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LAC 6
  • Q2 03:48 TD LAC (3:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – LAC 13
  • Q2 01:15 TD PIT (1:15) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 9 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:06 FG LAC (:06) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. PIT 10 – LAC 17
  • Q3 11:58 TD LAC (11:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 30-A.Ekeler for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 10 – LAC 23
  • Q3 03:44 FG LAC (3:44) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. PIT 10 – LAC 27
  • Q4 14:14 FG PIT (14:14) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 13 – LAC 27
  • Q4 11:38 TD PIT (11:38) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 22-N.Harris right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – LAC 27
  • Q4 08:52 TD LAC (8:52) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 20 – LAC 33
  • Q4 04:54 TD PIT (4:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 26 – LAC 34
  • Q4 04:28 TD PIT (4:28) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 33 – LAC 34
  • Q4 03:29 FG PIT (3:29) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 37 – LAC 34
  • Q4 02:17 TD LAC (2:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 37 – LAC 40

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (8:33) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (10:40) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to LAC 2 for no gain (33-D.James; 92-J.Gaziano).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (:06) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (10:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LAC 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at LAC 26 for -1 yards (41-R.Spillane).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (3:44) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 93%

    (14:14) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (12:40) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-54-M.Overton, ball out of bounds at LAC 3.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:48) 68-S.Kelemete reported in as eligible. 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to LAC 34 for no gain (93-J.Schobert, 95-C.Wormley).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 84%

    (3:29) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.