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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 1-T.Long punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-54-M.Overton, ball out of bounds at LAC 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model