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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model