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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 23

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 6-D.Hopkins 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.08 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model