4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:06) 6-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +3.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model