Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 24

(10:16) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to LAC 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 7-A.Roberts pushed ob at LAC 26 for -1 yards (41-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model