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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Rich Bisaccia
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2021-11-07 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LV
57.6%
NYG
42.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LV on 8 more days rest than NYG
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.194 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 25
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LV

No players on the report.

NYG

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Lorenzo Carter LB Out Ankle
Nate Ebner S Out Ankle
Sterling Shepard WR Out Quadricep
Gary Brightwell RB Questionable COVID Protocol
Kenny Golladay WR Questionable Knee
John Ross WR Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 16
–
NYG 23

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:53 TD NYG (10:53) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones pass deep right to 88-E.Engram for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 0 – NYG 6
  • Q1 05:48 TD LV (5:48) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 13-H.Renfrow for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – NYG 7
  • Q2 14:52 FG LV (14:52) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – NYG 7
  • Q2 03:28 FG NYG (3:28) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LV 10 – NYG 10
  • Q2 00:10 FG LV (:10) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 13 – NYG 10
  • Q3 13:38 TD NYG (13:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 13-H.Renfrow INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at LV 41. 29-X.McKinney for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 13 – NYG 16
  • Q3 05:24 FG LV (5:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 16 – NYG 17
  • Q4 14:11 FG NYG (14:11) 5-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LV 16 – NYG 20
  • Q4 03:25 FG NYG (3:25) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. LV 16 – NYG 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:41) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to NYG 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 49 for 12 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski). LV-6-A.Cole was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 49.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (14:52) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (8:50) 6-A.Cole punts 58 yards to NYG 26, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 40 for 14 yards (22-K.Nixon; 87-F.Moreau).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 94%

    (3:28) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 95%

    (:10) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 68%

    (8:29) 8-Mariota in at QB. 8-M.Mariota right end to NYG 29 for 6 yards (49-B.McKinney).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (5:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (14:11) 5-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (9:31) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 28%

    (6:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 46 yards to LV 5, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 10 for 5 yards (31-K.Crossen). FUMBLES (31-K.Crossen), touched at LV 13, recovered by LV-32-D.Leavitt at LV 12.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 91%

    (3:25) 5-G.Gano 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.