Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 79

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 6-A.Cole punts 42 yards to NYG 37, Center-47-T.Sieg. 83-P.Cooper to NYG 49 for 12 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski). LV-6-A.Cole was injured during the play. PENALTY on NYG-31-K.Crossen, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model