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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 13

New York Giants 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 16

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 5-G.Gano 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.32 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP