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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 58

New York Giants 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 58, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP