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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 35

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 8-Mariota in at QB. 8-M.Mariota right end to NYG 29 for 6 yards (49-B.McKinney).

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.66 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model