4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 7

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 2-D.Carlson 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.91 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP