4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SF Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -4.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

SF
65.5%
CHI
34.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Justin Fields (CHI): -0.355 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI offense: -0.156 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

SF

Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Javon Kinlaw DT Out Knee
Jaquiski Tartt S Out Knee
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Doubtful Concussion
Dee Ford DE Doubtful Concussion
Samson Ebukam DE Questionable Ankle
Trent Williams T Questionable Ankle

CHI

Khalil Mack LB Out Foot
Jakeem Grant WR Questionable Ankle
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Groin
Jesper Horsted TE Questionable Knee
Sam Kamara LB Questionable Knee
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 33
–
CHI 22

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:43 FG CHI (4:43) 2-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 0 – CHI 3
  • Q1 02:56 FG SF (2:56) 14-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 3 – CHI 3
  • Q2 12:09 TD CHI (12:09) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 18-J.James for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 3 – CHI 9
  • Q2 09:38 FG SF (9:38) 14-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 6 – CHI 10
  • Q2 01:20 FG CHI (1:20) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 6 – CHI 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG SF (:02) 14-J.Slye 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 9 – CHI 13
  • Q3 08:36 FG CHI (8:36) 2-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. SF 9 – CHI 16
  • Q3 06:00 TD SF (6:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 15 – CHI 16
  • Q4 14:21 TD SF (14:21) (Shotgun) 25-E.Mitchell left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 21 – CHI 16
  • Q4 09:43 TD CHI (9:43) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-54-F.Warner was injured during the play. His return is Probable. SF 23 – CHI 22
  • Q4 06:38 TD SF (6:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson was injured during the play. SF 29 – CHI 22
  • Q4 02:00 FG SF (2:00) 14-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 33 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 58%

    (12:36) (No Huddle) 23-J.Hasty right guard to CHI 35 for 2 yards (99-T.Gipson).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 75%

    (9:53) 14-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 8 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (4:43) 2-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 75%

    (2:56) 14-J.Slye 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 66%

    (9:38) 14-J.Slye 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (1:20) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (8:36) 2-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 16 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to SF 27, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-B.Aiyuk to SF 48 for 21 yards (48-P.Scales, 21-X.Crawford).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 88%

    (9:43) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-54-F.Warner was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 11 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (2:00) 14-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.