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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 22

Chicago Bears 16 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 1-J.Fields scrambles left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF-54-F.Warner was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.44 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.51 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model