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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 22

Chicago Bears 10 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model