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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 21

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 2-C.Santos 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model