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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 37

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) (No Huddle) 23-J.Hasty right guard to CHI 35 for 2 yards (99-T.Gipson).

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.47 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.51 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -3.15 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model