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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 7

Chicago Bears 13 – San Francisco 49ers 9

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 2-C.Santos 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model