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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-10-17 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

MIN
40.8%
CAR
59.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR defense: -0.199 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (MIN): +0.161 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
CAR 26
Projected margin: CAR by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIN

Ben Ellefson TE Out Knee
Michael Pierce DT Out Elbow

CAR

Kamal Martin LB Out Concussion
Christian McCaffrey RB Out Hamstring
Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot
C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Shoulder
Deonte Brown G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 34
–
CAR 28

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:55 FG MIN (11:55) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN-69-R.Hill was injured during the play. His return is Probable. MIN 3 – CAR 0
  • Q1 08:31 TD CAR (8:31) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – CAR 6
  • Q1 03:01 FG MIN (3:01) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 6 – CAR 7
  • Q2 11:05 TD MIN (11:05) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 89-C.Herndon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Brown, Unnecessary Roughness, 1 yard, enforced between downs. MIN 12 – CAR 7
  • Q2 04:25 FG CAR (4:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow. MIN 12 – CAR 10
  • Q3 06:56 TD CAR (6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – CAR 16
  • Q3 04:06 TD MIN (4:06) (Shotgun) 52-M.Cole reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook right guard to CAR 1 for 15 yards (21-J.Chinn). Minnesota challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 52-M.Cole and 52-M.Cole reported in as eligible. 33-D.Cook right guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 18 – CAR 17
  • Q3 02:30 TD MIN (2:30) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 24 – CAR 17
  • Q4 10:19 FG MIN (10:19) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN 28 – CAR 17
  • Q4 04:44 FG CAR (4:44) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow. MIN 28 – CAR 20
  • Q4 00:46 TD CAR (:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 11-R.Anderson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 28 – CAR 26
  • Q5 05:55 TD MIN (5:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 17-K.Osborn for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 34 – CAR 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (11:55) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry. MIN-69-R.Hill was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (9:34) 10-R.Winslow punts 40 yards to MIN 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 35 for 7 yards (27-K.Robinson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 98%

    (3:01) 1-G.Joseph 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:22) 10-R.Winslow punts 41 yards to MIN 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 30 for 4 yards (34-S.Chandler, 23-S.Thomas-Oliver). FUMBLES (34-S.Chandler), touched at MIN 28, recovered by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 25. PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 25.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:42) 10-R.Winslow punts 44 yards to MIN 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook to MIN 31 for no gain (42-S.Franklin). PENALTY on MIN-29-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 31.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:54) 3-J.Berry punts 44 yards to CAR 38, Center-42-A.DePaola. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 39 for 1 yard (29-K.Boyd).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 79%

    (4:25) 5-Z.Gonzalez 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:11) 3-J.Berry punts 54 yards to CAR 12, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (13:21) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 35 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus; 29-K.Boyd).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 24%

    (8:19) 10-R.Winslow punts 44 yards to MIN 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-23-S.Thomas-Oliver.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (15:00) 10-R.Winslow punts 36 yards to MIN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 91%

    (10:19) 1-G.Joseph 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 73%

    (7:05) 1-G.Joseph 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-3-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (4:44) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-R.Winslow.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 16 at the 41 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 51%

    (2:18) 3-J.Berry punts 37 yards to CAR 4, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-85-D.Chisena.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 96 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 80-I.Thomas to CAR 45 for 41 yards (23-X.Woods).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 6 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (:51) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 2-Dj.Moore pushed ob at MIN 7 for 25 yards (27-C.Dantzler).