Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 19 at the 84

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Carolina Panthers 10

(13:21) 3-J.Berry punts 53 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-A.DePaola. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 35 for 4 yards (44-J.Metellus; 29-K.Boyd).

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model