Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 12 – Carolina Panthers 10

(6:56) 3-J.Berry punt is BLOCKED by 49-F.Luvu, Center-42-A.DePaola, RECOVERED by CAR-27-K.Robinson at MIN 4. 27-K.Robinson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.24 EP
62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model