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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 96

Carolina Panthers 20 – Minnesota Vikings 28

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 80-I.Thomas to CAR 45 for 41 yards (23-X.Woods).

The Three Options

GO -3.01 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.51 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 96, worth -5.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 53, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.19 EP