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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 68

Carolina Panthers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 10-R.Winslow punts 40 yards to MIN 28, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at MIN 35 for 7 yards (27-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model