MIA @ JAX — 4th & Data

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Sunday 2021-10-17 · 09:30 Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

MIA

58.3%

JAX

41.7%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

Neutral site — no home-field edge
JAX defense: +0.192 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
MIA offense: -0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Trevor Lawrence (JAX): -0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
MIA defense: +0.166 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
JAX offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
MIA crossing 5 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22

–

JAX 21

Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

MIA

Xavien Howard CB Out Shoulder

DeVante Parker WR Out Shoulder

Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable Hamstring

Byron Jones CB Questionable Achilles

Adam Shaheen TE Questionable Knee

Preston Williams WR Questionable Groin

JAX

Rashaad Coward T Out Ankle

Myles Jack LB Out Back

Tyson Campbell CB Questionable Toe

Roy Robertson-Harris DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 20

–

JAX 23

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:48 TD MIA (7:48) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – JAX 0
Q1 03:54 FG JAX (3:54) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 7 – JAX 3
Q2 14:19 FG MIA (14:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 10 – JAX 3
Q2 05:42 FG MIA (5:42) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 13 – JAX 3
Q2 00:47 TD JAX (:47) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Baker]. MIA 13 – JAX 9
Q3 12:34 TD JAX (12:34) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 25-J.Robinson right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – JAX 16
Q4 10:28 TD MIA (10:28) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 19 – JAX 17
Q4 03:45 FG JAX (3:45) 15-M.Wright 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 20 – JAX 20
Q4 00:01 FG JAX (:01) 15-M.Wright 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. MIA 20 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 22

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 88%

(3:54) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q2 MIA 4th & 15 at the 15

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

(14:19) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.
Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 43

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 42%

(10:41) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to JAX 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 89

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(8:56) 9-L.Cooke punts 27 yards to JAX 38, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.
Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 57% p(FG) 75%

(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins to JAX 10 for 20 yards (42-A.Wingard).
Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(5:42) 7-J.Sanders 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 JAX 4th & 15 at the 40

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 50%

(2:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 37 yards to MIA 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.
Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 88

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP

p(convert) 74%

(1:51) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to MIA 49, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 64%

(:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 28 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).
Q3 MIA 4th & 14 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 25%

(6:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to JAX 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 9

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 97%

(14:21) 25-J.Robinson left tackle to MIA 9 for no gain (55-J.Baker).
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(8:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.
Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 59

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP

p(convert) 42%

(6:48) 5-M.Palardy punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Touchback. Miami challenged the touchback ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2 at 06:39.)
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 36 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 61%

(3:45) 15-M.Wright 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 71%

(1:49) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to MIA 46 for no gain (41-J.Allen, 49-C.Russell). Official measurement ruled short of the line to gain, turnover on downs.
Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 44 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 39%

(:05) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 35 for 9 yards (29-Br.Jones).