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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 35

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Miami Dolphins 13

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 10-L.Shenault to MIA 28 for 7 yards (21-E.Rowe).

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 45, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model