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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 86-M.Hollins to JAX 10 for 20 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 40, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model