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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 68

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to MIA 25, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.81 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 26, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model