Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

(12:46) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to MIA 35, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.10 EP
69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model