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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 50

Miami Dolphins 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 17

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to JAX 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model