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New York Jets

1-4 HC Robert Saleh
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

2-3 HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 09:30 ET Tottenham Stadium, London GB 🌧 Rain Spread 3.0 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

NYJ
45.9%
ATL
54.1%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.291 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • ATL defense: +0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) -0.028 vs Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.298 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: -0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21 14–28
–
ATL 25 18–32
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYJ

Adrian Colbert S Out Concussion
Tyler Kroft TE Out Back
Marcus Maye S Out Ankle
Jeff Smith WR Out Concussion
Brandin Echols CB Questionable Concussion
Nathan Shepherd DT Questionable Knee

ATL

Marlon Davidson DT Out Ankle
Russell Gage WR Out Ankle
Calvin Ridley WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Erik Harris S Doubtful Calf
Avery Williams CB Doubtful Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 20
–
ATL 27

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:51 FG ATL (8:51) 7-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. NYJ 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 01:47 TD ATL (1:47) 69-J.Spriggs reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ATL 9
  • Q2 11:06 TD ATL (11:06) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 81-H.Hurst for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – ATL 16
  • Q2 02:18 FG NYJ (2:18) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 3 – ATL 17
  • Q2 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. NYJ 3 – ATL 20
  • Q3 11:00 TD NYJ (11:00) (Shotgun) 25-T.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – ATL 20
  • Q4 06:59 TD NYJ (6:59) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – ATL 20
  • Q4 02:26 TD ATL (2:26) 28-M.Davis left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYJ-95-Q.Williams, Defensive Holding, declined. NYJ 17 – ATL 26
  • Q4 00:22 FG NYJ (:22) 6-M.Ammendola 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NYJ 20 – ATL 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 53%

    (11:27) 84-C.Patterson up the middle to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (26-B.Echols; 39-J.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (8:51) 7-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (7:10) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (:09) 4-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus pushed ob at ATL 23 for 15 yards (85-T.Wesco).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%

    (2:18) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 68%

    (:02) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:55) 12-D.Colquitt punts 24 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%

    (6:42) 4-T.Morstead punts 36 yards to ATL 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 17-O.Zaccheaus.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:41) 4-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to ATL 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 17-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 31 for 4 yards (35-S.Neasman, 43-D.Phillips).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (9:37) 12-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →