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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 67

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 4-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-34-J.Hardee.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.05 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 25, worth -1.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model