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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 42

Atlanta Falcons 20 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 12-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to NYJ 10, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.52 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP