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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 13

New York Jets 0 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-M.Ammendola 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model