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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 17 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 7-Y.Koo 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.39 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model