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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 20 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 12-D.Colquitt punts 24 yards to NYJ 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model