MIA @ TB — 4th & Data

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Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 11.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

MIA

23.5%

76.5%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

MIA offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.164 vs Jacoby Brissett (MIA) -0.137 EPA/dropback
TB offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
MIA defense: +0.069 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 18

–

TB 28

Projected margin: TB by 10 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

MIA

DeVante Parker WR Questionable Shoulder

TB

Rob Gronkowski TE Out Ribs

Pat O'Connor DE Out Calf

Antoine Winfield S Out Concussion

Giovani Bernard RB Questionable Knee

Jamel Dean CB Questionable Knee

Jason Pierre-Paul LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 17

–

TB 45

Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:21 FG MIA (11:21) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 3 – TB 0
Q1 07:09 TD TB (7:09) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – TB 6
Q1 03:21 TD MIA (3:21) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – TB 7
Q2 14:11 FG TB (14:11) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. MIA 10 – TB 10
Q2 11:12 TD TB (11:12) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-A.Brown for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-S.Eguavoen]. MIA 10 – TB 16
Q2 01:51 TD TB (1:51) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 81-A.Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – TB 23
Q3 07:01 TD MIA (7:01) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 16 – TB 24
Q4 15:00 TD TB (15:00) 7-L.Fournette right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – TB 30
Q4 11:55 TD TB (11:55) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-40-N.Needham, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. MIA 17 – TB 37
Q4 09:03 TD TB (9:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 13-M.Evans for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 17 – TB 44

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIA 4th & 5 at the 5

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(11:21) 7-J.Sanders 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.
Q2 TB 4th & 16 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

(14:11) 3-R.Succop 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(12:46) 5-M.Palardy punts 39 yards to TB 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-86-M.Hollins.
Q2 MIA 4th & 8 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(8:16) 5-M.Palardy punts 35 yards to TB 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, downed by MIA-43-A.Van Ginkel.
Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP

p(convert) 62%

(12:55) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to MIA 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 17-J.Waddle.
Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(14:06) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to TB 39, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 85-J.Mickens to TB 39 for no gain (86-M.Hollins).
Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(7:13) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 13, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.